Data on the the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 in Montenegro, using a Bayesian VAR approach

This fileset contains two data files:These are: <b>22927448_new macro-model.wf1</b> in .wf1 file format, and the openly accessible versioin of the dataset, <b>Time series and scenarios.xlsx </b>in .xlsx file format.<br>The dataset Time series and scenarios.xlsx contains observations on what happens to GDP, capital stock, human capital, and employment, in three economic scenarios – shocks – of how the pandemic disease might impact the economy of Montenegro in the dawn of entering the European Union. The authors forecast a sustainable GDP growth model from January 2006 until December 2017. Deterministic-static simulation solution model – the baseline – was employed, adding sensitivity scenarios – shocks – from January 2018 until Jun 2018, respectively, from -10% until -60%.<br> The following time series data are included: GDP_GAP (The GDP GAP is defined as the difference between potential GDP and real GDP), EMP_SA (denotes seasonally adjusted employment time series), CAPITAL_STOCK_SA (denotes seasonally adjusted capital stock time series), LOGHUMCAP_SA (denotes the natural logarithm of human capital seasonally adjusted time series).<br>In each spreadsheet, S1, S2 and S3 represent the three different scenarios.Scenario 1 represents the employment decrease, scenario 2 represents the capital decrease, and scenario 3 represents the human capital decrease.<br><b>Study aims and methodology</b>: A limited number of studies have examined the potential consequences of a pandemic such as COVID-19, on the economy of Montenegro. The objective of this paper is to fill this space by examining the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19, employing monthly data from January 2006 until 2017, and out-of-sample data from January 2018 until December 2018, predicting the movement of macro-model variables.In this study, the authors measured the COVID-19 impact for the first time in the Montenegrin economy using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) and forecasting sensitivity deterministic-static scenario model. They applied alternative forecasting scenarios to all the macroeconomic variables. For more details on the methodology, please read the related article.<br><b>Software needed to access data</b>: The WF1 file type is primarily associated with EViews Workfile. (Econometric software). A suitable software like EViews Workfile, is needed to open a WF1 file.<br>