Building Support for Climate Migrants in Divided Societies: Experimental Evidence from Nigeria's Farmer-Herder Conflict

This
study investigates whether climate communication can reshape attitudes toward
farmer-herder conflict in Nigeria. A pre-post survey experiment (n=735) in the
southwest—a region targeted for resettlement of displaced northern
pastoralists—randomly assigned participants to a documentary framing migration
as a consequence of northern desertification or a control group. Results
demonstrate a scalar paradox. The treatment successfully increased
climate-based causal attributions, redistributed blame toward the government,
and boosted support for national-level resettlement policies. However, it
simultaneously reduced support for hosting ranches locally. Qualitative
analysis indicates the intervention reframed local opposition from security
concerns to issues of procedural fairness and territorial appropriation. The
findings suggest that while climate narratives foster abstract solidarity, they
make the costs of implementation more salient, thereby activating localized
resistance. The study highlights a critical policy challenge: effective
communication may widen the gap between national policy acceptance and local
implementation.