Climate-Induced Habitat Suitability Modelling for Pelagic Fish in European Seas

Pelagic fish species, such as Atlantic herring, Atlantic mackerel, and European seabass, are crucial for both the ecological balance and economic prosperity of European seas. Understanding their migration patterns and habitat preferences is vital for ensuring sustainable fisheries management. This study employed a mechanistic niche modelling approach to predict the distribution of these species, investigating the impact of climate change on their habitat suitability. The study incorporated a mathematical description of each species' niche and focused on temperature and salinity responses, utilising fuzzy logic principles. Climate prediction data and various scenarios were utilized to simulate habitat suitability models from the current to 2090. Our findings indicate substantial alterations in habitat suitability under the climate scenario SSP585 , with a northward shift for all three species. Temperature and salinity changes drive complex shifts, with regional variations in suitability conditions. This mechanistic approach informs proactive fisheries management strategies, crucial for navigating the dynamic interplay between climate change, fish distribution, and the post-Brexit landscape.