DataSheet1_Evolving Threshold of Flood-Leading Precipitation in a User-Oriented Forecast System Based on the TIGGE Dataset.pdf

Specific users play a key role in interactive forecast systems through user-oriented information (UOI). For hydrological users, a key component of the user-oriented forecast system (UOFS) is to determine the threshold of flood-leading precipitation (TFLP) as a target of the forecast by considering the decision-making information at the user end. This study demonstrates a novel way of simulating TFLP via the inverse simulation of a hydrological model, combined with the flood hazard assessment in the upper reaches of the Huai River Basin controlled by the Wang Jiaba (WJB) hydrological station. The flood hazard, defined as the probability of precipitation beyond the daily evolving TFLP for the next day, was evaluated by using the THORPEX Interactive Global Grand Ensemble (TIGGE) datasets, including 162 members retrieved from 5 TIGGE archive centers. Having integrated the real-time monitored water level (as the UOI) into the UOFS, we applied it to the flood season of 2008 as a case study to evaluate the flood hazard generated by the UOFS for the WJB sub-basin. The simulated TFLP corresponded well with the gap between the monitored and warning water level. The predicted flood hazard probability showed good agreement with the first two flood peaks at 100% accuracy, while exceeding 60% accuracy for the third flood event in that season. Thus, the flood hazard could be better quantified via integration of the forecasted flood-leading precipitation. Overall, this study highlights the usefulness of a UOFS coupled with interactive UOI of real-time water level to determine the dynamical TFLP for flood hazard evaluation with ensemble precipitation forecast. The early flood warning which resulted from such integrated UOFS is directly applicable to operational flood prevention and mitigation.

特定用户在交互式预报系统中扮演着关键角色，通过以用户为导向的信息（UOI）实现。对于水文用户而言，用户导向的预报系统（UOFS）的核心要素在于，通过考虑用户端的决策信息，确定洪水前导降水阈值（TFLP）作为预报的目标。本研究提出了一种创新的方法，通过逆模拟水文模型来模拟TFLP，并结合淮河流域上游受王家坝（WJB）水文站控制的水文模型，进行洪水风险评估。洪水风险定义为超过次日日演变TFLP的降水概率，通过使用THORPEX交互式全球大集合（TIGGE）数据集进行评估，包括从5个TIGGE归档中心检索到的162个成员。将实时监测的水位（作为UOI）整合到UOFS中后，我们将其应用于2008年的洪水季节作为案例研究，以评估UOFS为WJB子流域产生的洪水风险。模拟的TFLP与监测和预警水位之间的差距相符。预测的洪水风险概率与该季节的前两个洪水峰值100%准确一致，对于第三个洪水事件，准确率也超过60%。因此，通过整合预测的洪水前导降水，可以更好地量化洪水风险。总体而言，本研究突出了UOFS结合实时水位的交互式UOI在评估集合降水预报动态TFLP对于洪水风险评定中的实用性。此类集成UOFS产生的早期洪水预警可直接应用于实际洪水预防和缓解工作中。