Trade War and Peace: U.S.-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015–2050
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We model trade policy as a Markov process. Using a dynamic exporting model, we estimate how expectations about U.S. tariffs on China have changed around the U.S.-China trade war. We find (i) no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end
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美国国家经济研究局创建时间：
2024-02-01
