Replication Data for: "Five Laws of Politics: A Follow-Up."

In this sequel to "Five Laws of Politics," the original estimates of electoral outcomes hold up with twice the number of elections and three times as many countries. In democracies election outcomes gravitate toward a set of parameters describing the limits of support for the incumbents. On average, 75% of eligible voters turn out to vote, casting 40% of their ballots for the in-party. This amounts to a “support rate” of not quite one third of the electorate (“law of minority rule”). When victorious, typically the ruling party wins 45%-50% of the vote, which is around 4 percent points higher than the opposition’s share when it prevails, is re-elected nearly 60% of the time, and serves two terms lasting about 8 years (“law of incumbent advantage”). This advantage notwithstanding, incumbents lose about 4 percent points per term (“law of shrinking support”), and in only about 3% of cases do they top “the law of the 60% maximum.” Although regional differences are observed, the trend lines point to convergence in the long run. Thus, these parameters could be interpreted as the “natural” values toward which democracies incline, even as they are mediated by particular electoral rules and country-specific contexts.