Replication package for “Mangrove Degradation and Tourism-Driven Economic Dynamics in a Caribbean SIDS: Evidence from a VECM”

This repository contains the Stata code, input datasets, and documentation required to reproduce the empirical analyses reported in the article Mangrove Degradation and Tourism-Driven Economic Dynamics in a Caribbean SIDS: Evidence from a VECM, accepted for publication in Ocean & Coastal Management. The package includes the complete Stata do-file, processed datasets used in the econometric analysis, step-by-step procedures, and documentation describing the workflow from data preparation to estimation, diagnostic testing, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition, and figure generation. This study examines the macroeconomic effects of mangrove degradation in the Dominican Republic, a tourism-dependent small island developing state (SIDS). Using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) with annual data from 1995 to 2023, the research explores the relationships among real GDP, international tourist arrivals, accommodation capacity, and mangrove capital. The findings reveal significant ecological and economic linkages. In the short term, mangrove degradation negatively affects GDP growth, tourist arrivals, and accommodation capacity, and Granger causality tests indicate that mangrove capital influences these variables. In the long run, a positive relationship between mangrove capital and GDP suggests that ecosystem depletion restricts sustainable economic growth. The estimated annual economic loss due to degradation is about USD 75 million, or 4.2% of the value of coastal and marine ecosystem services. Robustness checks confirm the stability of results across pre-crisis and pre-COVID periods. These findings highlight the need to prioritize mangrove conservation in macroeconomic policy for coastal tourism-dependent SIDS.