Jo_simulation_eDNA

Despite a consensus on the correlative relationship between eDNA concentration and organism abundance, precise and reliable abundance estimation using eDNA analysis is in its infancy, especially in nature. Previous studies suggested that eDNA production might depend on water temperature and is allometrically scaled with individual body mass, which may be useful to strengthen the eDNA-abundance relationship. Here, this study conducted a numerical simulation considering different scenarios regarding the temperature- and body mass-dependent eDNA production, demonstrating the positive effects of temperature on the strength and sensitivity of the eDNA-abundance relationship when eDNA production and degradation were temperature-dependent. Additionally, the extent of allometry in eDNA production and the type of abundance metrics had complex effects on the relationship. Although further efforts have to be required to integrate organism physiology into eDNA production, theorizing the eDNA-abundance relationship like this study will contribute to making eDNA signals more quantitative and reliable across ecosystems.