Changes in waterfowl migration phenologies in central North America: implications for future waterfowl conservation

Globally, migration phenologies of numerous avian species have shifted over the past half-century. Despite North American waterfowl being well researched, published data on shifts in waterfowl migration phenologies remain scarce. Understanding shifts in waterfowl migration phenologies along with potential drivers is critical for guiding future conservation efforts. Therefore, we utilized historical (1955–2008) nonbreeding waterfowl survey data collected at 21 National Wildlife Refuges in the mid- to lower portion of the Central Flyway to summarize changes in spring and autumn migration phenology. We examined changes in the timing of peak abundance from survey data at monthly intervals for each refuge and species (or species group; n = 22) by year and site-specific temperature for spring (Jan–Mar) and autumn (Oct–Dec) migration periods. For spring (n = 187) and autumn (n = 194) data sets, 13% and 9% exhibited statistically significant changes in the timing of peak migration across years,...