Many losers – one winner? – An examination of vote switching to the AfD in the 2017 German federal election using VAA data

At first glance, the German federal election of 2017 saw many losers but only one winner. While the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) lost a high share of their previous voters, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a right-populist party, managed to achieve an extraordinary success by doubling its amount of voters compared to the previous election. By making use of data from a Voting Advice Application, the paper seeks to explore the AfD’s electoral success and more specifically its ability to attract voters from the mainstream and traditionally powerful parties. Drawing on the literature on radical right-wing parties in Europe, the analysis tests hypotheses on the effect of attitudinal determinants of vote switching from the two mainstream parties in Germany towards the AfD. In line with the existing literature, the results show that overall motivations for voting for the AfD seem to be somewhat tangentially connected to demographic variables and more strongly related to ideological self-assessment such as being more conservative and less opposed against state intervention in the economy. As well, relevant policy positions concerning immigration, Euroscepticism and state interventionism can explain vote switching to the AfD.