Probabilistic Wildfire Risk (Map Service)

National burn probability (BP) and conditional fire intensity level (FIL) data were generated for the conterminous United States (US) using a geospatial Fire Simulation (FSim) system developed by the US Forest Service Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory to estimate probabilistic components of wildfire risk (Finney et al. [2011]). The FSim system includes modules for weather generation, wildfire occurrence, fire growth, and fire suppression. FSim is designed to simulate the occurrence and growth of wildfires under tens of thousands of hypothetical contemporary fire seasons in order to estimate the probability of a given area (i.e., pixel) burning under current landscape conditions and fire management practices. The data presented here represent modeled BP and FIL for the conterminous US at a 270-meter grid spatial resolution. The six FILs correspond to flame-length classes as follows: FIL1 = < 2 feet (ft); FIL2 = 2 < 4 ft.; FIL3 = 4 < 6 ft.; FIL4 = 6 < 8 ft.; FIL5 = 8 < 12 ft.; FIL6 = 12+ ft. Because they indicate conditional probabilities (i.e., representing the likelihood of burning at a certain intensity level, given that a fire occurs), the FIL*_20160830 data must be used in conjunction with the BP_20160830 data for risk assessment.