Predicting spatio-temporal population patterns of Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease pathogen

The causative bacterium of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, expanded
from an undetected human pathogen into the etiologic agent of the most
common vector-borne disease in the United States over the last several
decades. Systematic field collections of the tick vector reveal increases
in the geographic range and population size of B. burgdorferi that
coincided with increases in human Lyme disease incidence across New York
State. Here we investigate the impact of environmental features on the
population dynamics of B. burgdorferi. Analytical models developed using
field collections of nearly 19,000 nymphal Ixodes scapularis and
spatially- and temporally-explicit environmental features accurately
explained the variation of B. burgdorferi population sizes across space
and time. Importantly, the model identified environmental features that
can be used to predict the biogeographical patterns of B.
burgdorferi-infected ticks into future years and in previously unsampled
areas. Forecasting the distribution and abundance of a pathogen at fine
geographic scales offers a powerful strategy to mitigate a serious public
health threat.