Trade-offs Between Grid Connectivity and Operational Flexibility in Reducing the Cost and Carbon Footprint of Green Ammonia - Dataset

Usage Notes This repository contains comprehensive data supporting the figures and analyses presented in the article "Trade-offs Between Grid Connectivity and Operational Flexibility in Reducing the Cost and Carbon Footprint of Green Ammonia". The Supplementary Data file provides the input data used for the main figures in the paper. Each sheet within the Excel files corresponds to specific figures or datasets, as outlined below. Users are encouraged to refer to the article for additional context and detailed information regarding the datasets presented. Abstract: Ammonia is essential for fertilizer production and industrial applications, but conventional synthesis is highly carbon-intensive due to reliance on fossil-based hydrogen. Producing “green ammonia” with renewables-based electrolytic hydrogen offers lower emissions and greater resilience to fossil fuel market volatility, though at higher cost. To reduce infrastructure overbuilding and associated costs, two main strategies have been proposed: (1) grid connection under emission caps and (2) increased operational flexibility. Yet, their relative benefits remain location-specific and uncertain. Here, we evaluate these strategies across a wide range of EU weather patterns using levelized cost of ammonia (LCOA) and life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions as benchmarks. We find that grid-connected plants achieve greater cost reductions but are more sensitive to regulatory uncertainty, particularly emission caps, while operational flexibility achieves larger emission cuts. On average, grid-connected plants lower LCOA by 42% (1,569 EUR/t NH3; range: 999–2,772) and emissions by 25% (0.66 t CO2e/t; range: 0.39–1.15), while flexible off-grid plants reduce costs by 38% (1,593 EUR/t; range: 1,168–2,573) and emissions by 45% (0.49 t CO2e/t; range: 0.31–0.94) compared to baseline off-grid, non-flexible green ammonia systems. Benefits are most pronounced in regions with limited renewable resources, though plants there may face competitiveness challenges, potentially making relocation more attractive. Combining both strategies yields only modest additional benefits, except in wind-rich regions. These findings provide robust guidance for selecting cost- and emission-effective strategies, supporting targeted deployment and sector decarbonization. Authors: Stefano Mingolla(1,2)*, Kevin Rouwenhorst (3), Paolo Gabrielli (4,5), Giovanni Sansavini (4), Magdalena M. Klemun (6,7,8)*, Zhongming Lu (1,9)*↵* Corresponding authors Affiliation: (1) Division of Environment and Sustainability, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China(2) IE School of Science and Technology, IE University, Calle de María de Molina, 13, Chamartín, 28006 Madrid, Spain(3) Ammonia Energy Association, 77 Sands Street, Brooklyn, NY 11201, USA(4) Institute of Energy and Process Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland(5) Huawei Technologies Switzerland, Zurich Research Center, Digital Power, 8050 Zurich, Switzerland(6) Energy Institute, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR, China(7) Division of Public Policy, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China(8) Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 N Charles Street, Baltimore, MD, USA(9) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave W, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada Corresponding Author: *Stefano Mingolla --> [e-mail] *Magdalena M. Klemun --> [e-mail] *Zhongming Lu --> [e-mail]