Coastal Flooding – Future (2130 SSP5 8.M)

This dataset presents the extent of static coastal inundation under possible future sea level rise scenarios for multiple Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) events, and depth for a 1%AEP. The mapping identifies low-lying areas susceptible to flooding from elevated sea levels due to tides, storm surge, and projected sea level rise. Covers nine coastal inundation cells: Waimea Inlet Tāhunanui Rocks Road Nelson CBD Nelson Haven Boulder Bank to Pepin Island Delaware Bay estuary Delaware open coast Oananga Bay Mapping is based on elevation only and does not reflect flow paths or wave effects. Finalised April 2026, based on 2025 LiDAR and 2020-2024 modelling. Developed by Tonkin & Taylor Ltd for Nelson City Council and recorded as Nelson Coastal Inundation Mapping Update, Phase B (v1), December 2024 and Addendum, April 2026. Derived from 2025 LiDAR data and NIWA (2018) storm tide levels. Mapping uses a bathtub approach and does not account for overland flow paths, engineered structures, or future shoreline changes.本数据集呈现了多种年超概率（Annual Exceedance Probability, AEP）事件情景下，未来潜在海平面上升引发的静态海岸淹没范围，以及1%年超概率事件对应的淹没水深。该测绘成果识别了受潮汐、风暴潮及预估海平面上升导致的海平面升高影响而易发生洪涝的低洼区域。本次覆盖9个海岸淹没单元：怀梅阿湾（Waimea Inlet）、塔胡南努岩滩路段（Tāhunanui Rocks Road）、纳尔逊中央商务区（Nelson CBD）、纳尔逊港（Nelson Haven）、博尔德班克至佩平岛区域（Boulder Bank to Pepin Island）、特拉华湾河口（Delaware Bay estuary）、特拉华开放海岸（Delaware open coast）、奥南加湾（Oananga Bay）。本测绘仅基于高程数据开展，未考虑径流路径或波浪作用影响。成果于2026年4月最终定稿，基于2025年激光雷达（Light Detection and Ranging, LiDAR）数据及2020-2024年的模型模拟结果。本数据集由Tonkin & Taylor有限公司为纳尔逊市议会（Nelson City Council）开发，相关成果命名为《纳尔逊海岸淹没测绘更新：B阶段（v1）》（2024年12月）及2026年4月增补版。数据源自2025年LiDAR数据及新西兰国家水与大气研究所（National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, NIWA）2018年发布的风暴潮位数据。本次测绘采用浴缸模型法，未考虑地表径流路径、人工构筑物或未来海岸线变化。