PREBAS simulation dataset in Climate Guide

The land ecosystem model PREBAS was used to produce annual values for key climate change indicators for the period 1981 to 2100. The climate change indicators were derived for mainland Finland and they include gross primary production (GPP), total ecosystem respiration (TER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), forest growth and start, end and length of vegetation active period. The mean values are given for four time periods, a baseline (1981–2010) and for three scenario periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100). Additionally changes from the baseline are given for the scenario periods.

Processing

The climate change simulations were carried out by combining PREBAS model to information derived from 16 m resolution multisource forest inventory data maps. These maps represent the distribution of forest resources and species across Finland in high detail. For the climate change simulations here, we split forest resource maps to 8 km x 8 km areas, i.e. grid cells. For speeding up the calculation we sampled every fourth grid cell, and assumed their data represented that of a larger 16 km x 16 km area.

For each simulated grid cell we simulated 50 most dominant forest classes using their areas in the grid cell as criteria. Remaining area that usually was only a small proportion of the dominant class area was distributed to the 50 dominant classes in proportion to their areas. Classes represented different combinations of dominant tree species, age, basal area and mean diameter at breast height (dbh), soil fertility (scale <=2, 3, 4, 5, >=6, according to the Finnish classification system of Cajander 1949)), and soil type (peat soil or mineral soil). Thereafter, the simulated annual values in these classes were aggregated to grid cell level using their areas calculated from 16 km resolution forest maps. Climate data from the nearest climate grid point was used for each 16 km forest simulation grid cell.

These datasets contain simulations results for selected response variables of PREBAS forest model for 3 climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) and 5 climate model inputs.
https://www.avoindata.fi/data/fi/dataset/monilahteisen-valtakunnan-metsien-inventoinnin-mvmi-kartta-aineisto-2011

Simulations for the period 1981-2100 were split to four 30 year periods. The periods were simulated independently of each other. At the beginning of each period, forest state variables (i.e. forest data) were initialized with the forest inventory data of 2011.

During the simulations, PREBAS harvested the simulated forests following the Tapio rules. This means that harvests were somewhat higher than recorded in harvest statistics for the reference period (1981-2010), but the reported growth values are likely little affected. Conservations areas were not managed at all.
https://www.climateguide.fi/articles/ecosystem-modelling

The PREBAS model and various tests has have been described in detail elsewhere (Peltoniemi et al., 2015a, Minunno et al., 2016, Valentini and Mäkelä 2008, Minunno et al., submitted). The modelled GPP has been compared to GPP of JSBACH model earlier (Peltoniemi et al., 2015b). Source code and the model parameters of the GPP and water balance submodule are available at https://github.com/MikkoPeltoniemi/Rpreles/releases (release 1.0). The GPP and water components of the model originate from re-calibration of the model to eddy-covariance at 10 sites in Scandinavia (Minunno et al. 2016).

Resources

Maps of the climate change indicators and descriptive statistics for Finland or selected regions can be viewed in climateguide.fi under the section ‘Impacts of climate change’. The following indicators are available from PREBAS simulations: gross primary production (GPP), total ecosystem respiration (TER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), forest growth and start, end and length of vegetation active period. The user can select maps showing the mean values for four time periods, a baseline (1981–2010) and for three scenario periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100). Additionally, changes from the baseline can be viewed for a given scenario period.

Maps of the climate change indicators and descriptive statistics for Finland or selected regions can be viewed in climateguide.fi under the section ‘Impacts of climate change’. The following indicators are available from PREBAS simulations: gross primary production (GPP), total ecosystem respiration (TER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), forest growth and start, end and length of vegetation active period. The user can select maps showing the mean values for four time periods, a baseline (1981–2010) and for three scenario periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100). Additionally, changes from the baseline can be viewed for a given scenario period.

https://www.climateguide.fi/articles/impact-scenarios-of-climate-change

Data access

The data can be accessed via a Web Feature Service (WFS) supporting versions 1.0.0 and 1.1.0. WFS services can be opened in various GIS applications, for example ArcGIS for Desktop and open source desktop application QGIS.

Typically, the GIS application loads data from a WFS service in a GML (Geography Markup Language) format. Additionally, the data can be loaded as zip compressed ESRI Shape files, a CSV file or a JSON file.

The service includes 7 feature types representing PREBAS simulations.

tereco_grossphotosynthesispreles - Gross primary production, PREBAS model (gC/m2/a)
tereco_growthpreles - Growth, PREBAS model (m3/ha/a)
tereco_netcarbonbalancepreles - Net ecosystem exchange, PREBAS model (gC/m2/a)
tereco_totalrespirationpreles - Total ecosystem respiration rate TER, PREBAS model (gC/m2/a)
tereco_vapendpreles - End of vegetation active period, PREBAS model (day of year)
tereco_vaplengthpreles - Length of vegetation active period, PREBAS model (days)
tereco_vapstartpreles - Start of vegetation active period, PREBAS model (day of year)

The attributes of each feature type are labelled as [climateModel]_[emissionScenario]_[timePeriod]_0_[valueType].

There are five climate models.

canesm2bc - CanESM2
cnrmcm5bc - CNRM-CM5
gfdlcm3bc - GFDL-CM3
hadgem2esbc - HadGEM2-ES
miroc5bc - MIROC5

There are three emission scenarios.

rcp26 - RCP 2.6
rcp45 - RCP 4.5
rcp85 - RCP 8.5

The timePeriod includes the start year and the end year of the period, respectively.

There are three options for valueType.

rc - relative change
ac - absolute change
av - value

For example, the attribute labeled as hadgem2es_rcp45_20712100_0_ac describes the climate model HadGEM2-ES, the emission scenario RCP 4.5, a time period from 2011 to 2040 and absolute changes.

https://paikkatiedot.ymparisto.fi/geoserver/ilmo-climateguide/wms?request=getcapabilities