Religion, Populism and Backsliding: The Case of Polish Gray Voters

Next to Hungary, Poland is the most prominent case of democratic backsliding in Europe. Against this backdrop, this study examines how religion shapes liberal-democratic versus authoritarian-populist political preferences among older ("gray") voters in Poland. We focus on gray voters because, due to demographic change, they represent an increasingly influential segment of European electorates (including Poland). Also, gray voters are particularly targeted by authoritarian-populist parties, most notably Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) party whose leaders are the main agents of democratic backsliding. Drawing on a three-wave panel survey collected across the full 2023–2025 electoral cycle (N = 323), we analyze the party sympathies and vote choices of gray voters (aged 60 and above) in the context of Poland's democratic backsliding. As drivers of gray voters' authoritarian-populist inclinations, we distinguish between an emphasis on Catholic primacy, personal religiosity and sexual conservatism. Using general linear and binomial logistic regression models, we show that Catholic primacy and sexual conservatism are the strongest and most consistent predictors of both authoritarian-populist party sympathies and vote choices. By contrast, personal religiosity is either unrelated to authoritarian-populist inclinations or even associated with liberal-democratic preferences. These findings demonstrate that religion’s political effects depend less on religiosity per se than on its public, identity-based, and moralizing politicization. Our study also demonstrates that--like in the US and other countries--conservative opposition against sexual liberalism in questions about abortion, homosexuality and divorce is a key element motivating authoritarian-populist party sympathies and vote choices.