Modeling Viability of Avian Populations in the Southern Appalachians: Potential impacts of Climate Change from 2002 to 2004

There is a general consensus that the global climate has slowly warmed (0.6 degrees C) over the past 100 years and that this trend will continue at an accelerated rate over the next 100 years (1 degree to 6 degrees C) (Kattenburg et al. 1996). Aside from the mean annual increase in temperature, the frequency of weather extremes, such as heat waves, drought, and tropical storms are projected to increase across North America over the next century (Easterling et al. 2000). Past changes in temperature and precipitation have been accompanied by changes in insect and vertebrate distributions from both tropical and temperate environments (Parmesan 1996, Pounds et. Al 1999). We have developed bird-habitat models that allow us to predict the occurrences of species in specific forest types within and across national forests within the Blue Ridge physiographic province with a high degree of accuracy (Linder et al. submitted). These models categorize habitat as unsuitable, marginal or high quality as determined by the rate of occupancy over five years of point count data. We will validate our occurrence models with reproductive data. We hypothesize that reproductive success will correspond to predicted habitat quality. While stochastic events may obscure patterns in the short-term, long-term reproductive trends should reflect site quality.