Current Situation and Prospects of the Low-Carbon Development of Thermal Power in China

ObjectivesThe thermal power industry in China accounts for more than 40% of CO2 emissions, and its low-carbon transformation is the key to achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. Therefore, this study analyzes the current low-carbon development status of thermal power in China and proposes targeted carbon reduction governance pathways accordingly.MethodsFocusing on the actual situation of low-carbon development in the thermal power industry, this study analyzes core indicators such as installed capacity, proportion of power generation, unit structure, and carbon emission intensity, and combines with the current status of technology application and industrial layout to propose carbon reduction governance pathways. These pathways include accelerating the orderly phase-out of small coal-fired power units with high energy consumption and low efficiency, adjusting the structure of small coal-fired power units for efficiency improvement and energy conservation, and driving the comprehensive upgrading of the low-carbon transformation of the coal power industry; building a source carbon reduction pathway based on the co-firing of biomass energy and green-based fuels (green ammonia/green hydrogen), improving the closed-loop quality control chain of coal entering the furnace, and promoting the replacement with low-carbon and efficient coal-fired power units; and accelerating the deployment of R&D applications such as carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) to achieve large-scale removal and conversion of CO2.ConclusionsThe proportions of installed capacity and power generation of thermal power in China are declining rapidly, the unit structure continues to be optimized, and the carbon emission intensity per unit of thermal power continues to decrease. However, gas-fired power accounts for a relatively low proportion in thermal power and improves slowly. The proposed governance pathways effectively promote the low-carbon transformation of the thermal power industry and provide theoretical support and practical reference for improving energy structure optimization and realizing the carbon neutrality goal. Additionally, the technical bottlenecks of green hydrogen/green ammonia in aspects such as storage, transportation, and economic efficiency urgently need to be overcome. The obstacles of CCUS in cost, efficiency, and large-scale application need to be addressed, and regional differences in resource endowment should be considered to coordinate and promote the overall optimization of the national energy structure.