How do state leaders’ emotions indicate their confidence in security relationships and security guarantees? Australia and the United States nuclear umbrella

This thesis considers the role of emotions as expressed through discourse, as a means to indicate confidence in nuclear security guarantees – from the Australia-US security relationship case study. Australian Governments appear compelled to trust US security assurances, despite not having a formalised position under its nuclear umbrella. Considering the fundamental limitations of the ANZUS Treaty, this research looks to prime ministerial emotional discourse – from 1996-2018 – to assess if the emotions turn can assist researchers to determining confidence in the US security guarantee. This research affirms the importance of analysing leaders’ discourse, including through emotional discourse, however due to many variables, concludes that emotional discourse alone cannot indicate confidence in the Australia-US security guarantee.