Predicted effects of climate factors on mountain species are not uniform over different spatial scales

The selection of relevant factors and appropriate spatial scale(s) is fundamental when modelling species response to climate change. We evaluated whether the effects of climate factors on species distribution/occurrence are consistently modelled over different spatial scales in birds, and used a two-scale approach to identify species-climate correlations unlikely to represent causal effects. We used passerine birds inhabiting mountain grassland in the Apennines (Italy) as a model. We surveyed four grassland species at 400 sampling points, and built habitat selection models (territory scale) and distribution models (7 algorithms, landscape scale). We compared the effect of climatic predictors on occurrence/distribution highlighted by models over to the two spatial scales, and with the effects supposed a priori based on the climatic niche of each species. Models at the territory level included at least one climatic predictor for three species; the observed effect of climatic predictors wa...