AFGHANISTAN AFTER 2021: BETWEEN POLITICAL CONSOLIDATION AND REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY – IMPLICATIONS FOR CENTRAL ASIA

The return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 reshaped political and economic dynamics across Central and South Asia. While Afghanistan has traditionally been viewed through the lens of insurgency, conflict, and geopolitical rivalry, post-2021 developments increasingly positioned the country in debates over transport cooperation, trade integration, and regional connectivity. This paper examines the relationship between political consolidation in Afghanistan and evolving regional engagement with Central Asia, particularly Uzbekistan. It argues that Afghanistan’s internal political order directly shapes regional perceptions regarding infrastructure diplomacy, economic interaction, and long-term connectivity initiatives. The paper further contends that regional integration depends not only upon geography but also upon governance predictability, institutional stability, and strategic confidence among neighboring states. Drawing selectively upon Regional Security Complex Theory and Political Settlement Theory, the study analyzes how Taliban consolidation after 2021 influenced regional calculations concerning railway diplomacy, trade corridors, and economic cooperation. The findings suggest that Uzbekistan emerged as the most proactive regional actor pursuing engagement with Kabul through transport diplomacy, electricity cooperation, trade expansion, and connectivity initiatives centered around Termez and the Trans-Afghan Railway project. In contrast, Tajikistan continues to prioritize security concerns, whereas Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan maintain more cautious, selective approaches. The paper concludes that Afghanistan currently occupies a transitional regional position where opportunities for economic integration coexist with continuing political, economic, and institutional uncertainty.