High habitat potential but limited connectivity for brown bears throughout Europe

Large carnivores worldwide have experienced substantial range contractions
due to human activities. Using an ensemble species distribution model and
occurrence data from all European brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations,
we assessed current and potential bear habitat as well as habitat
connectivity. Habitat suitability was strongly associated with low human
development, high forest cover, and proximity to forest. Of our entire
study area, 37% (4.09 million km2) is suitable for bears. Connectivity
analyses identified corridors that could facilitate movement among
southern European bear populations, though agriculture and human
development limit connectivity between northern and southern European bear
populations. Previous research estimated bears occupied 0.5 million km2
across the European Union, while our results estimate 1.82 million km2 of
this area is potentially suitable for bears, though connectivity is
limited. Our results inform conservation strategies and policy development
for the future of brown bears in Europe, emphasizing the need for
transboundary conservation efforts. Raw species presence data are not
publicly available as the subject species (European brown bear) is listed
under Annex IV of the EU Habitats Directive (Council Directive 92/43/EEC),
which designates it as a species of community interest in need of strict
protection. Article 12 of the directive prohibits deliberate disturbance,
capture, or killing of individuals in the wild and includes protections
for breeding sites and resting places. Presence data censored to a 10-km
resolution are available from this repository, as is the code used to
create the ensemble model.