Data Collection March 2020

Gross domestic product: March 2020 quarter – adjustments and revisions Adjustments The quarterly indicators used to compile our estimate of GDP are the best that we have available at that point in time. When compiling our quarterly estimates, we face trade-offs between timeliness and the quality, coverage, length of historical series and/or conceptual alignment of available data sources. As a result, the methodologies that we use vary depending on the data available and are underpinned by certain assumptions. In normal periods of activity, these assumptions provide us with reasonable estimates of activity. In periods of abrupt disruption that result in changes to activity and temporary shifts in the structure of the economy (such as the alert level 4 lockdown in late March to curtail the spread of COVID-19), some of these relationships may weaken or no longer hold. We have a used a range of supplementary data to carefully evaluate our estimates and where necessary have applied informed adjustments to our measures. COVID-19 lockdown and gross domestic product for March and June 2020 quarters summarises the data source, methodological, and conceptual challenges to the compilation of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) for the March and June 2020 quarters due to COVID-19. Adjustments to Quarterly Employment Survey indicators We use Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) as one of our input data sources. However, QES is a mid-quarter estimate and will not represent disrupted activity resulting from lockdown in the March 2020 quarter. We have used alternative data sources to make adjustments to our QES indicators in the following areas: · administrative and support services, specifically travel agency and tour arrangement services · healthcare and social assistance, specifically: hospitals medical and other healthcare services residential care services and social assistance · arts and recreation services, specifically: heritage and artistic activities sports and recreation activities gambling activities civil, professional, and other interest groups · electricity, gas, water, and waste services, specifically waste collection services · household consumption expenditure on: sport and recreation medical and dental out-patient services other health out-patient services hospitals and nursing homes. Adjustments to series without indicator We also have a handful of industries and components that do not have a quarterly indicator and use interpolation of movements between annual estimates. We have used additional data sources to make adjustments which account for the impact of the lockdown adjusted to account for this method in the following: · rental, hiring, and real estate services, specifically rental and hiring services (except real estate) · education and training, specifically: preschool tertiary adult and other education · gross fixed capital formation of other construction, specifically local government expenditure · household consumption expenditure on: education services other passenger transport costs road passenger services other private transport costs other household services. Seasonal adjustment treatment Sharp changes in activity, such as those caused by the lockdown, pose challenges for our usual seasonal adjustment processes. We have reviewed all series exhibiting unusual changes in activity and have applied outliering of the latest data point where required. This has the effect of subduing the impact of unusual data points on the seasonal adjustment process. This treatment has been applied to the following series: · gross domestic production · gross domestic expenditure · real gross national disposable income · accommodation and food services · transport, postal, and warehousing · other services, specifically personal care, funeral, and other personal services · electricity, gas, water, and waste services, specifically gas supply · manufacturing of textiles, leather, clothing, and footwear · household consumption expenditure on: food and non-alcoholic beverages clothing and footwear transport · exports of: textiles and apparel services travel services transport services · total imports of goods and services · imports of: goods consumption goods services travel services · change in inventories. Revisions to previously published statistics We incorporated some revisions in this release. Revisions are usually driven by new or improved data that affect historical results, or changes to the underlying measure. In both cases we aim to better represent the real-life situation of a changing society, economy, and environment. The key revisions are discussed below: · incorporation of annual agricultural production statistics · chain linking · other revisions Incorporation of annual agricultural production statistics We incorporated data from Agricultural production statistics: June 2019 (provisional). The data replaced earlier provisional and modelled stock levels. Incorporating the data led to revisions to agricultural activity in GDP, and to agricultural inventories in the expenditure measure of GDP. These changes caused revisions from the March 2018 quarter onwards. Chain linking We use data for March years to calculate chain-volume measures. Some previously published quarterly chain-volume measures have been revised because we now have year ended March 2020 results. The revisions affect the production and expenditure measures of GDP. See Chain volume measures in National Accounts for more information. Other revisions Financial intermediation services indirectly measured Updated input data for financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) resulted in revisions to financial and insurance services in the production measure of GDP, and in the expenditure measure of GDP. Revisions due to updated indicator data We received updated respondent information and other source data, causing minor revisions to: · agriculture, forestry, and fishing · mining · electricity, gas, waste, and water · information, media, and telecommunications · rental, hiring, and real estate services · transport equipment (GFKF) · imports and exports. Revisions to inventories Revisions were made during the process of reconciling change in inventories with other movements in production and expenditure series. This process is designed to minimise inconsistencies in timing and valuation. Revisions table The following table shows previously published and revised quarterly movements for the March 2015–December 2019 quarters’ GDP and expenditure on GDP (GDE). Previously published and revised quarterly movements Gross Domestic product Gross domestic expenditure Percentage change from previous quarter Quarter Previously published Revised 18 June 2020 Previously published Revised 18 June 2020 March 2015 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 June 2015 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 September 2015 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 December 2015 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 March 2016 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 June 2016 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 September 2016 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.7 December 2016 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 March 2017 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 June 2017 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 September 2017 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.2 December 2017 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 March 2018 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 June 2018 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 September 2018 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 December 2018 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 March 2019 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 June 2019 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 September 2019 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 December 2019 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 Source: Stats NZ en-NZ