Mexican cartels form a network of alliances and rivalries

Mexican cartels lose many members due to conflict with other cartels and
arrests. Yet, despite their losses, cartels managed to increase violence
for years. We address this puzzle by leveraging data on homicides, missing
persons and arrests in Mexico for the past decade, along with information
on cartel interactions. We model recruitment, state incapacitation,
conflict and saturation as sources of cartel size variation. Results show
that by 2022, cartels counted 160,000–185,000 units, becoming a top
employer. Recruiting at least 350 people per week is essential to avoid
their collapse due to aggregate losses. Furthermore, we show that
increasing incapacitation would increase both homicides and cartel
members. Conversely, reducing recruitment could substantially curtail
violence and lower cartel size.