National Accounts- Quarterlies June 2024 Data Collection

Gross domestic product: June 2024 quarter – changes and data updates Introduction Gross domestic product (GDP) sources and methods are thoroughly documented (see: Quarterly gross domestic product: Sources and methods (second edition), with a further update in Quarterly gross domestic product: Sources and methods (fifth edition) for the data sources and methods used in estimating GDPI). Overview of sources and methods for quarterly gross domestic product: Updates and COVID-19 adjustments provides a summary of the sources and methods and also includes information about where we have used alternative indicators to better capture the impacts of COVID-19 on economic activity. The quarterly indicators used when compiling our estimate of GDP are the best that we have available at that time. We usually face trade-offs between timeliness and the quality of available data sources. As higher quality data becomes available this is incorporated into our estimate of GDP as data updates. As a result, the methods we use vary depending on the data available and are underpinned by certain assumptions. In normal periods of activity, these assumptions provide us with reasonable estimates of activity. In periods of abrupt disruption (such as the COVID-19 alert level 4 lockdowns) some of these relationships have weakened or no longer hold. Changes made due to COVID-19 We’ve continued to review and refine approaches applied in each of the quarters from March 2020 to June 2024. Where necessary, we continue to use alternative indicators to ensure the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions on activity are appropriately measured. In some cases we are still using alternative indicators where returning to our usual method will lead to poorer quality estimates. Overview of sources and methods for quarterly gross domestic product: Updates and COVID-19 adjustments is an updated guide to the concepts and methods we are using to compile gross domestic product (GDP) and includes information on where alternative indicators remain in use. Seasonal adjustment additive outlier treatment Sharp changes in activity pose challenges for our usual seasonal adjustment processes. Over the last few years, we have applied additive outlier treatment to our headline GDP estimates, as well as to those industries and components with major impacts from border closures or domestic COVID-19 restrictions. This subdues the impact of unusual data points on the seasonal adjustment process. The irregular impacts of COVID-19 largely finished in the June 2022 quarter and for most affected series we have stopped applying additive outlier treatment from the September 2022 quarter onwards. As activity returns to more stable patterns there will be a period of uncertainty around seasonal adjustment factors, especially for series heavily affected by COVID-19 restrictions. We plan to review seasonal adjustment settings during and around the COVID-19 period in the near future, as it is possible that some settings chosen during the pandemic are no longer optimal as we move towards a different economic environment. This review is likely to result in changes to treatment, and hence revisions for some series – especially those most affected by the pandemic. When finalised, any changes will be clearly signalled in advance of publication. Corrections to quarterly gross domestic product Corrections to household consumption expenditure and exports A change in method in travel credits estimation had unintentionally caused a break in seasonal pattern, causing misleading seasonally adjusted estimates for HCE and exports of services. This was corrected in the June 2024 International Trade release and is now corrected in June 2024 GDP. More information can be found in the June 2024 International Trade release International trade: June 2024 quarter | Stats NZ. Corrections to gross fixed capital formation A processing error relating to aircraft purchases affected the December 2022 and March 2023 quarters. This has now been corrected, leading to increased government GFKF in these quarters and lower private GFKF. Corrections to unallocated taxes and imports An error in bulk fuel in the June 2023 annual flowed through to both unallocated taxes and imports. This was corrected in the June 2024 International Trade release and is now corrected in June 2024 GDP. International trade: June 2024 quarter has more information about this correction. Corrections to unallocated taxes An error in input data for the tobacco imports duty component of unallocated taxes has been corrected, updating values from March 2022 quarter onwards. Along with this correction, small data updates have been brought in for earlier time periods. Changes due to updated indicator data Incorporating updated international trade data International trade data has been updated for the September 2018 quarter onwards, with revisions to exports and imports. International trade: June 2024 quarter has more information about the changes. Incorporating updated Value of building work put in place data The Value of building work put in place (also known as Quarterly Building Activity Survey (QBAS)) includes updated data from the September 2023 quarter onwards. This has caused changes to both construction and gross fixed capital formation over the same time period. Value of building work put in place: June 2024 quarter has more information about the updates. Incorporating updated Linked Employer-Employee Data (LEED) The Linked Employer-Employee Data (LEED) has updated data from March 2023 quarter onwards. This has caused changes to electricity, gas, water, and waste services over the same period. Linked employer-employee data: June 2023 quarter – NZ.Stat tables has more information. Incorporating updated local authority Statistics data (QLAS) The local authority statistics data has been updated in the June 2024 quarter, causing updates to local government final consumption expenditure. Local authority statistics: June 2024 quarter | Stats NZ has more information. Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) changes Low-level QES data is used as quarterly indicators for several production-side sub-industries and expenditure components. The quarterly movements for some QES series have shown increased volatility due to sample rotation, and further analysis has led to the use of movements that exclude the impact of sample change. The industries that required adjustment in the June 2024 quarter are: electricity, gas, water and waste services construction healthcare and social assistance arts and recreation household consumption expenditure (HCE). Labour market statistics: June 2024 quarter has more information about the QES changes. Other changes due to updated respondent information and other source data We received updated respondent information and other source data, causing updates to: Agriculture, forestry, & fishing – updated stocks Manufacturing – updated business financial data (BFD) Electricity, gas, water, and waste services – new and updated Linked Employer-employee data (LEED) Information, media, and telecommunications – updated employment data and updated administrative data from Inland Revenue Department Finance and Insurance – updated Financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) data and RBNZ data Rental, hiring, and real estate services – updated QV, employment and FISIM data Education and training – updated visa data Arts and recreation – updated population data Household consumption expenditure – updated travel credits and debits data, letters data and FISIM data Central government final consumption expenditure – updated indicator data Local government final consumption expenditure – updated QLAS data Gross fixed capital formation – updated QBAS data and other updated respondent data Imports and exports – updated International Trade data Unallocated taxes – flow-through from updates to insurance services, gross fixed capital formation, household consumption expenditure and central government final consumption expenditure Inventories – new and updated BFD data and stocks data. Updates to inventories We also made updates during the process of reconciling change in inventories with other movements in production and expenditure series. This process is designed to minimise inconsistencies in timing and valuation. Whilst this process typically only affects recent quarters, in the June 2024 quarter we also made changes to inventories adjustments applied in the June 2019 and March 2020 quarters. Updates in applying alternative indicators We made minor updates to components that used alternative indicators through periods affected by COVID and Cyclone Gabrielle. In many cases the alternative indicator is based on data from the Business Financial Data (BFD) collection or a composite indicator from Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) and Business Employment Data (BED). This resulted in minor updates for many components from the June 2023 quarter onwards. The updates were not due to the source data revising, but instead due to updates in the processing of the source data to form our alternative indicators. This has contributed to updates in: Transport, postal, and warehousing Household consumption expenditure Updates in GDP income measure The updates to Business Financial Data (BFD), Quarterly Building Activity Survey (QBAS), final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, inventories, and imports and exports of goods and services will flow through to GDPI series. Data updates table The following table shows previously published and updated quarterly movements for the September 2016–June 2024 quarters’ GDP and expenditure on GDP (GDE). It does not include some changes to earlier quarters, as they were less material. All movements below are in constant prices. Previously published and updated quarterly movements, March quarter 2019–March quarter 2024 Gross domestic product Gross domestic expenditure Percentage change from previous quarter Quarter Previously published Updated 19 September 2024 Previously published Updated 19 September 2024 March 2019 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 June 2019 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 September 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 December 2019 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 March 2020 -1.2 -1.3 -0.9 -1.2 June 2020 -10.1 -10.0 -9.8 -9.6 September 2020 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.8 December 2020 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 March 2021 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.8 June 2021 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 September 2021 -3.9 -4.0 -4.3 -4.2 December 2021 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 March 2022 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 June 2022 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 September 2022 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 December 2022 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 March 2023 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 June 2023 0.5 0.8 0.6 1.2 September 2023 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 December 2023 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 March 2024 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 Source: Stats NZ en-NZ