Additional figures and script for the study Projected niche shifts of Prunus cerasifera under climate change scenarios and its consequences

In the article we developed species distribution model for cherry plum Prunus cerasifera, and we predicted its climatic optimum under four scenarios developed for the 6th IPCC Assessment Report, i.e. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). These scenarios reflect uncertainties in possible trajectories of climate change mitigation16. We chose four scenarios: SSP126 (sustainability, the most optimistic scenario reflecting RCP2.6 from 5th report), SSP245 (middle of the road, moderate scenario reflecting RCP4.5), SSP370 (regional rivalry, not used in the 5th report), and SSP585 (fossil-fuel based development, the worst possible scenario, reflecting RCP8.5), and two timelines: 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. For each SSP and timeline, we downloaded four versions, based on four (among eight available) different global circulation models (GCMs): IPSL-CM6A-LR (France), MRI-ESM2-0 (Japan), CanESM5 (Canada), and BCC-CSM2-MR (China), to reflect the uncertainty among GCMs, and to account for GCMs developed in different countries.In the set of figures for each tree species we procided four sets of maps:files with averaged_ in filename. Projected habitat suitability in Europe, expressed as continuous variable averaged across four GCMs for each RCP - files with _averaged in the namefiles with uncert_ in filename. Uncertainty of prediction across four GCMs for each RCP and timeframe expressed by SD of predicted habitat suitability for each pixel - files with _uncert in the namefiles with shifts_ in filename. Discretized current and projected range in Europe. Explanations: green+orange – current potential distribution, green – persistence, orange – future range contraction, blue – future range expansion, grey – still unsuitable; files with _sppyears in the nameCurrent climatic suitability (curr.cont - for continuous variables and curr.dist for discretized), predicted continuous climatic suitability (averaged across GCMs), and shifts in distributions (values: -2 = range expansion, -1 = persistence, 0 = no change/absence, 1 = range contraction). All files are in folders for particular tree speciesglupka.shp - raw occurrence data used for development of SDM (glupka is a regional common name in Wielkopolska and Kociewie, from where the majority of Authors come)script_P_cerasifera.R R script with all code used for