中国沿海百年一遇海岸洪水危险性空间图

极值水位数据来源于GTSR数据集，GTSR是基于水动力模型模拟的全球第一套再分析风暴潮和极值水位数据集，模拟了1979-2014年间的风暴潮和极值水位，覆盖了全球海岸线。与国外团队合作获得了1979-2014年中国沿海岸日最大值的数值模拟结果。基于GTSR数据集，采用极值理论模型，用五种极值理论模型和采样方法进行计算极值水位危险性进行评估，分别如下：gevr1: GEV分布对年最大值进行拟合（annual maximum, AMAX）；gumr1: Gumbel分布对观测到的年极值观测水位进行拟合（GUM-AMAX）；gevr10: GEV分布对每年取10个极值（r=10/yr）依次进行拟合；GPD98: 用超越阈值法取百分位数为98%进行GPD拟合；GPD9975:用超越阈值法取百分位数为99.75%进行GPD拟合。该数据弥补了验潮站点不连续性的缺点，可直观显示中国海岸洪水危险性高的地区，可用于后期沿海风险评估和高风险区划定。

Extreme water level data is derived from the GTSR dataset. GTSR is the world's first reanalysis storm surge and extreme water level dataset simulated via hydrodynamic models, which covers global coastlines and simulates storm surges and extreme water levels during 1979 to 2014. Through collaboration with foreign research teams, we obtained numerical simulation results of daily maximum values along China's coastal areas from 1979 to 2014. Based on the GTSR dataset, we adopted extreme value theoretical models and utilized five distinct extreme value theoretical models and sampling methods to assess the hazard of extreme water levels, as specified below:
1. gevr1: Fit annual maximum values (AMAX) using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution;
2. gumr1: Fit observed annual extreme water levels using the Gumbel distribution (GUM-AMAX);
3. gevr10: Sequentially fit 10 extreme values per year (r=10/yr) using the GEV distribution;
4. GPD98: Perform Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) fitting via the peak-over-threshold method with a percentile threshold of 98%;
5. GPD9975: Perform GPD fitting via the peak-over-threshold method with a percentile threshold of 99.75%.

This dataset compensates for the discontinuity issue of tidal gauge stations, can visually identify regions with high coastal flood hazards along China's coast, and can be applied to subsequent coastal risk assessment and high-risk zone delineation.

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集提供了中国沿海1979-2014年间百年一遇海岸洪水危险性的空间分布图，数据基于GTSR数据集和极值理论模型计算得出，弥补了验潮站点不连续的缺点，适用于沿海风险评估和高风险区划定。