Thankful Villages: luck or size? Parish size and the chance that every serviceman returned from the First World War: data and code

Data and code behind the data post Thankful Villages: luck or size?. The 55 Thankful Villages of England and Wales listed on Wikipedia, whose servicemen all returned from the First World War, are matched to their civil parishes and 2011 Census populations and compared with all 11,358 parishes in England and Wales. Findings: parishes under 500 people are about nine times likelier to be Thankful Villages than parishes of 1,000 or more. For the five villages with recorded numbers who served (11 to 25), the chance that all returned under an independent 12% risk of death was 4% to 25%. A simple independent-risk model predicts between about 540 and 1,370 thankful parishes, far more than the known list, which points to shared memorials and the need for proof as reasons the list is short. Modern populations are a proxy for 1911 sizes. Sources: Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0); Census 2011 KS101EW via Nomis, Office for National Statistics, Open Government Licence v3; postcodes.io. Code MIT licence. AI use: written with drafting, data and coding help from Claude (Anthropic).