Global Extreme Sea Level projections

In this study we present probabilistic projections of Extreme Sea Levels (ESL) until the end of the 21st century along the global coastline, by considering the contribution of mean sea level, tides, waves and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely (90% probability) increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34-76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario, and of 58-172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Intensification of the frequency of the design conditions is projected under both of the RCP scenarios for most of the shorelines, implying for timely actions towards coastal adaptation.