Natural ecosystem indicator dataset in Climate Guide

A species can thrive only in an area with a suitable climate. The Impact scenarios of climate change mapping tool of Climateguide.fi presents how climate change could affect the distribution of four bird species which are currently breeding in Finland. The simulated future ranges are prepared with bioclimatic envelope models which make use of observations and climate scenarios on a regular 10 km x 10 km over Finland under current and future climate.

Sampling

Areas with a suitable climate for four bird species are shown on a regular 10 km x 10 km over Finland for the baseline period 1971-1990 and two future periods, 2021–2050 and 2051–2080, under two climate scenarios simulated with the HadCM3 Global Climate Model under low (SRES B1) and moderately-high emission scenarios (SRES A2).

Processing

Four bird species that breed in different habitats were chosen from the model of Virkkala et al. (2009) to be presented in the Impact scenarios of climate change mapping tool: Red-throated Pipit (Anthus cervinus), Rustic Bunting (Emberiza rustica), Brambling (Fringilla montifringilla) and Common Greenshank (Tringa nebularia). Rustic bunting and Brambling are forest species while Red-throated Pipit and Common Greenshank are mire species. Rustic Bunting, Brambling and Common Greenshank have currently fairly large ranges in Finland while Red-throated Pipit is restricted to northernmost mires (Valkama et al. 2011). Observed bird species ranges were obtained from the three Finnish breeding bird atlases of the Finnish Museum of Natural History and the Ministry of Environment (Valkama et al. 2011), which contain information of bird species breeding statuses on a 10 x 10 kilometer grid covering the whole of Finland. Simulated distributions of the species were prepared with bioclimatic envelope models that identify present-day climatic conditions where a species currently occurs (Virkkala et al. 2009). The models can then be applied with climate scenarios to identify shifts in areas with suitable climate conditions in the future. The simulated new range of a species would be where the suitable climate has shifted. Likewise the current simulated range would cover the area where the climate is suitable for the species at the moment.

The following indicators are included:
Species range of Brambling (code: 0 – simulated absence for the baseline 1971-1990 and scenario period, 1 – present during baseline, absent during scenario period [species loss], 2 – absent during baseline, present during scenario period [species gain], 3 – present both during baseline and scenario period [species retained])
Species range of Common Greenshank (code 0, 1, 2 or 3)
Species range of Red-throated Pipit (code 0, 1, 2 or 3)
Species range of Rustic Bunting (code 0, 1, 2 or 3)

Details of the analysis to construct this dataset are described in Virkkala et al. (2009).

Data access

https://paikkatiedot.ymparisto.fi/geoserver/ilmo-climateguide/wms?request=getcapabilities

The data can be accessed via a Web Feature Service (WFS) supporting versions 1.0.0 and 1.1.0. WFS services can be opened in various GIS applications, for example ArcGIS for Desktop and open source desktop application QGIS. Typically, the GIS applications loads data from a WFS service in a GML (Geography Markup Language) format.
Additionally, the data can be loaded as zip compressed ESRI Shape files, a CSV file or a JSON file. The service includes 4 feature types representing bird species climate envelope model simulations: natu_brambling, natu_commongreenshank, natu_redthroatedpipit, natu_rusticbunting.

The attributes of each feature type are labelled as [climateModel]_[emissionScenario]_[timePeriod]_0_[valueType]. There is climate model, hadcm3; and two emission scenarios b2 and a2. The timePeriod includes the start year and the end year of the period. There is one option for valueType, absolute value av. For example, the attribute labeled as hadcm3_a2_20212050_0_av describes the climate model HadCM3, the emission scenario SRES A2, the time period from 2021 to 2050 and absolute value as a code (0 – simulated absence for the baseline 1971-1990 and scenario period, 1 – present during baseline, absent during scenario period [species loss], 2 – absent during baseline, present during scenario period [species gain], 3 – present both during baseline and scenario period [species retained]).