Data and model repository for Agrimate analysis for study "Global food security impacts of Russian wheat failure attributed to anthropogenic climate change"

This repository contains the input data, output data, and the version of the Agrimate model as well as scripts for post-processing raw output data for the associated the study. The attribution study has two different harvest scenarios: scenario = [factual, counterfactual].Each attribution harvest scenario has 1008 realisations: realisation = [0, 1, 2, 3, ..., 1007]The attribution study considers two policy options: i) historically reported export restrictions (suffix: "her") and ii) historically reported export restriction with No Russian restrictions between July 2010 - June 2010 (suffix: "nrr"). input.zip Contains files necessary to run Agrimate model harvest anomly files: harvest-anomalies_crop=wheat_source=FAOsince_2005_{scenario}-{realisation}.csv harvest trend files: harvest-trends_crop=wheat_source=FAOsince_2005_{scenario}-{realisation}.csv food production, consumption, export, imports per country for average baseline 2007-2009 food-balance_baseline=2007-2009_crop=wheat.csv trade flows between countries for average baseline 2007-2009 trade-flows_baseline=2007-2009_crop=wheat.csv historical export restriction implemented between 2007-2011 export-restrictions_crop=wheat_source=2007-2011.csv historical export restriction implemented between 2007-2011 WITHOUT Russian export ban between July 2010 - June 2011 export-restrictions_crop=wheat_source=2007-2011-nrr.csv regional parameters for consumption elasticitiy, demand elasticity, and storage-to-use ratio averaged for 2007-2009 parameters_baseline=2007-2009_crop=wheat_source=empirical.csv national population data averaged for 2007-2009 population_histsoc_national_annual_averaged_2007-2009.csv monthly historical price for hard red wheat historical_hrw_price_based_on_cmo_calendar_year.csv output.zip raw Contains raw output files from Agrimate, which contains among others harvest and consumption per macro region or transaction price between macro regions on sub-annual time resolution (24 time steps per year) for the respective scenario and realisation. Each simulation has a 4-year (=96 time steps) spin-up period at the beginning, where the model dynamically evolve to its dynamic unperturbed baseline. After this (beginning with 2005), the historically observed regional production anomalies and export restrictions perturb the baseline production and trade causing trade repercussions simulated by Agriamte. Only the Russian production anomaly in calendar year 2010 is changed for different scenarios {scenario} and different realisation {realisation}. For post-simulation analysis only the years 2010 and 2011 are used. The different policy scenarios {policy} are in the respective folders and additionally tagged via {policy} = [her, nrr] historical_export_restrictions raw output with historically reported export restrictions agrimate_her_{scenario}-{realisation}.nc raw output for best estimate attribution fit for 2010 Russian harvest failure agrimate_her_2010-fit.nc# no_russian_restrictions raw output with reported export restrictions with no russian export restrictions agrimate_nrr_{scenario}-{realisation}.nc raw output for best estimate attribution fit for 2010 Russian harvest failure agrimate_nrr_2010-fit.nc processed Contains processed output files from Agrimate as csv. Global and Russian harvest in metric tons for each {scenario} and {realisation} for historically reported export restrictions harvests_agrimate_her.csv Global and Russian harvest in metric tons for each {scenario} and {realisation} for reported export restrictions with no Russian restrictions harvests_agrimate_nrr.csv Global and Russian harvest in metric tons for best estimate attribution fit for 2010 Russian harvest failure harvests_agrimate_her_2010-fit.csv World market wheat price for annual average as well as maximum for the years 2010, 2011, 2012 and as average over 2010-2012 in USD per ton for each {scenario} and {realisation} for historically reported export restrictions world_market_prices_her.csv World market wheat price for annual average as well as maximum for the years 2010, 2011, 2012 and as average over 2010-2012 in USD per ton for each {scenario} and {realisation} for historically reported export restrictions world_market_prices_nrr.csv World market wheat price for annual average as well as maximum for the years 2010, 2011, 2012 and as average over 2010-2012 in USD per ton for each {scenario} and {realisation} for historically reported export restrictions world_market_prices_her_2010-fit.csv Regional consumption in metric tons and million calories per capita per year for 2010 and 2011 for each {scenario} and {realisation} for historically reported export restrictions regional_consumption_her.csv Regional consumption in metric tons and million calories per capita per year for 2010 and 2011 for each {scenario} and {realisation} for reported export restrictions with no Russian restrictions regional_consumption_nrr.csv Regional consumption in metric tons and million calories per capita per year for 2010 and 2011 for each {scenario} and {realisation} ssfor best estimate attribution fit for 2010 Russian harvest failure regional_consumption_her_2010-fit.csv Regional consumer prices in USD per ton for 2010 and 2011 for each {scenario} and {realisation} for historically reported export restrictions regional_consumer_prices_her.csv Regional consumer price in USD per ton for 2010 and 2011 for each {scenario} and {realisation} for reported export restrictions with no Russian restrictions regional_consumer_prices_nrr.csv