CRIME IN THE CITY OF RIO DE JANEIRO (RJ) PUBLIC POLICY INFLUENCES AND SHORT- AND LONG-TERM RELATIONSHIPS

The Rio de Janeiro (RJ) municipality presents one of the highest crime rates in Brazil. However, since the 2000s, a significant reduction of lethal crimes has been observed. Given this scenario, the aim of this study is to analyze the factors that determined this phenomenon. Among them, it seeks to assess the effects of the Pacifying Police Unit (Unidade de Polícia Pacificadora - UPP). To this end, the statistical error correction vector (ECV) method was used. This study allowed for the analysis of short- and long-term relationships between crime rates and variables associated with economic activity and police action. The applied dataset comprises the period between April 2002 and August 2019. The main results indicate that UPP implementation contributed to lethal crime reduction in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. Furthermore, the results show that coercive police action tends to increase crime rates.