ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in Food Price Outlook

The USDA, Economic Research Service’s (ERS) Food Price Outlook (FPO) provides forecasts of annual food price changes up to 18 months in the future. Once a month, the FPO forecasts the annual percentage change in prices for the current year and, beginning in July each year, for the following year. ERS has forecasted food prices for decades and periodically updates and improves the forecasting methods. In 2022, researchers at ERS developed a method to forecast food price changes more accurately while better representing the level of uncertainty in forecasts.