CLIMAAXKorsou Phase 2 — Pluvial Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment for Curacao

CLIMAAXKorsou Phase 2 — Pluvial Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment for CuracaoProject: CLIMAAXKorsou Phase 2Organization: Meteorological Department Curacao (MDC)Category: Hazard / RiskLicense: CC-BY-4.0 Description Pluvial flood hazard and risk assessment using IDF curves (32 years MDC observations, Gumbel extreme value fit) with Clausius-Clapeyron climate scaling applied to Deltares 3Di hydraulic model baseline. Nine climate scenarios across four SSP pathways. Files - `pluvial_flood_scenarios.csv` — 9 scenario summary (scaling factor, flooded area, mean/max depth)- `pluvial_flood_risk.csv` — Risk density per 315 neighbourhood per scenario- `pluvial_flood_parcels.csv` — Estimated buildings at risk per neighbourhood per scenario- `idf_curves.csv` — Gumbel-fitted IDF curves (island-wide annual maxima, 2-200yr return periods)- `cc_scaling.csv` — Clausius-Clapeyron scaling factors per scenario (100-year return period) Key Results - 100-year rainfall: 198mm (baseline) to 258mm (SSP5-8.5 2100, +30%)- Severe flooding (>1m): 937 buildings (baseline) to 1,538 (SSP5-8.5 2100, +64%)- Mean precipitation declines -31% but extreme events intensify +30% (Clausius-Clapeyron)- Top risk areas: Kustbaterij, Cabo Verde, Mahaai, Salinja Methodology Gumbel distribution fitted to 32 years of island-wide annual maximum daily precipitation (MDC R11 station). Clausius-Clapeyron scaling: extreme rainfall intensity increases ~10% per degree of warming. Scaling factor = max(CC rate, CMIP6 delta). 3Di baseline flood depth scaled proportionally. Risk density = population density x flooded significant fraction. Workflow Included in this upload:- `02_pluvial_flood.ipynb` — Jupyter notebook (all code, visualizations, database writes)- `_helpers.py` — Shared database connections and plot helpers Note: Notebook paths are sanitized for sharing. Requires PostgreSQL with climate_data database. Citation MDC (2026). CLIMAAXKorsou Phase 2: Pluvial Flood Risk Assessment for Curacao. Meteorological Department Curacao. Zenodo. https://doi.org/19272894