Sea level rise and habitat loss projections (2015-2100): Lido di Venezia and Alberoni Oasis, Venice Lagoon, Italy

Overview This dataset provides spatially explicit projections of sea level rise (SLR) impacts on Lido di Venezia and the Alberoni Oasis (2015-2100) under 3 RCP scenarios and 2 coastal flooding adaptations. It includes multi-band inundation rasters, summary statistics, and detailed habitat loss analysis for the Alberoni Oasis. All analyses use a bathtub inundation approach with sub-sea-level elevations clamped to zero to reflect 2015 baseline conditions under existing dike protection. Developed for ACCREU WP3 Case Study 3.2 (van Tilburg et al., 2025). Not here: Original DEMs and vector boundaries. See Gerber (2026a). Original habitat/vegetation maps (WWF). Proprietary data, request access from ACCREU partners. DIVA SLR projections. See Bacca et al. (2026) File Descriptions (Sea Level Rise) Clamped DEMs (Effective topography for SLR modelling) Folder clamped_zero_dems Format: GeoTIFF (INT1U, LZW compressed) CRS: EPSG:3035 | Resolution: 9.99 x 9.99 m | Cell area: 99.72 m² Lido di Venezia DEM dem_lido_cropped_clamped_zero_epsg3035.tif Extent: 4502229.24, 4511256.38, 2471927.91, 2483181.88 Elevation: 0.00 m to 7.48 m (mean: 1.53 m) Note: 51 cells originally <0m were clamped to 0m. Bounding box area is 101.59 km², but valid land area is ~7.5 km² (includes coastal groins). See metadata file: dem_lido_cropped_clamped_zero_metadata.txt Alberoni Oasis DEM dem_alberoni_cropped_clamped_zero_epsg3035.tif Extent: 4502448.92, 4504056.63, 2472337.33, 2474584.13 Elevation: 0.00 m to 2.93 m (mean: 1.35 m) Note: No cells were <0m originally; identical to the baseline DEM. Total area: 3.61 km². See metadata file: dem_alberoni_cropped_clamped_zero_metadata.txt SLR Results See folders lido_slr_results and alberoni_slr_results Sea level rise inundation raster stacks and CSVs for Lido di Venezia and Alberoni Oasis. For the SLR raster stacks: File name structure: Inundation_<Alberoni/Lido>_SSP2_<RCP...>_<Q...>_<adaptation> Scenario naming convention RCP...: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP126, RCP245, RCP370) Q...: Quantile of the SLR projection distribution (0.5 = median, 0.95 = upper) Adaptation: Constant_dike_height or Optimal_protection Format: Multi-band GeoTIFF (INT1U, LZW compressed) CRS: EPSG:3035 | Resolution: 9.99 x 9.99 m | Cell area: 99.72 m² Bands: Y2015, Y2020, Y2030, ..., Y2100 (10 decadal time steps) Values: 1 = flooded, NA = not flooded Note: 2015 bands contain all NA values (baseline SLR=0, no flooding). For the summary CSVs: Inundation_Lido.csv and Inundation_Alberoni.csv Format: Comma-Separated Values (UTF-8) Structure: One row per scenario per year. Columns: combo_id: Unique scenario identifier, concatenating ssp, rcp, quantile, and adaptation field time: Year of projection (2015-2100). Sourced from DIVA results. ssp: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (e.g., SSP2, SSP5). Sourced from DIVA results. rcp: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP126, RCP245, RCP370). Sourced from DIVA results. quantile: Quantile of SLR projection distribution (0,5; 0.95. Sourced from DIVA results. adaptation: Applied adaptation strategy (constant_dike_height, or Optimal_protection). Sourced from DIVA results. rslr_m: Relative mean sea level rise in meters. Sourced from DIVA results. total_flooded_area_km2: Cumulative area flooded (km2). count of flooded cells * cell area incremental_land_loss_km2: New area flooded since the previous time step (km2). flooded_volume_m3: Total volume of water over flooded cells (m3). File Description Habitat Loss Analysis (Alberoni Oasis only) In folder alberoni_habitat_loss, see full dataset: Habitat_Loss_Alberoni.csv Format: Comma-Separated Values (UTF-8) Structure: One row per habitat type, per year, per scenario. Columns: combo_id: Unique scenario identifier, concatenating ssp, rcp, quantile, and adaptation field time: Year of projection (2015-2100). Sourced from DIVA results. habitat: class name from the HabitatNew field of the source habitat shapefile baseline_cells: number of 10 m grid cells assigned to this habitat in the rasterized 2015 habitat map. baseline_area_m2/km2: 2015 habitat extent. Calculated as baseline_cells * cell_size flooded_cells: number of habitat cells inundated and derived by masking the rasterized habitat map with the inundation raster. flooded_area_m2/km2: Cumulative flooded habitat area. Calculated as flooded_cells * cell_area remaining_cells: Habitat cells still dry. Calculated as baseline_cells - flooded_cells remaining_area_m2/km2: Remaining habitat area. Calculated as remaining_cells * cell_size incremental_cells: New habitat cells flooded between the previous year and this year and calculated as current flooded_cells - previous year's flooded_cells. incremental_area_m2/km2: New habitat area lost since the previous year. Calculated as incremental_cells * cell_area percent_loss_from_baseline: Percentage of 2015 habitat extent now flooded. Calculated as (flooded_area/baseline_area_ * 100 composition_pct: This habitat's share of the total remaining habitat across all habitat types. Calcualted as (remaining_area / total_remaining_area) * 100 baseline_composition_pct: This habitat's original share of total habitat in 2015. composition_change_pct: Change in compositional dominance since 2015. Calculated as: composition_pct - baseline_composition_pct. Positive values indicate a habitat is gaining relative dominance, negative values indicate loss of dominance. Note: "Baseline" refers strictly to the mapped habitat extent, not the total protected area, as the proprietary habitat map is incomplete. Methods 1. Sub sea-level clamping Original DEMs (Gerber, 2026a, modified from Tarquini et al., 2023) clamped, where cells with elevation < 0 m set to 0 m using ifel(dem < 0, 0, dem). Rationale: In 2015, clamping ensured baseline (SLR=0) yields zero flooding. As SLR increases, these areas flood when SLR exceeds 0m. 2. Bathtub inundation modelling Modelled sea level rise inundation as per modified bathtub method (Gerber, 2026b). For each scenario and year: Extract RSLR from DIVA projections (location ID 70944) (Bacca et al., 2026) Identify cells where DEM < RSLR Mark as flooded (value = 1) Compute water depth (RSLR - DEM), area (flooded_cells * cell_area), volume (sum(water_depth) * cell_area) 3. Habitat loss analysis (Alberoni Oasis) Original habitat vector from WWF partner (restricted access). Contains habitat classification analysis of Alberoni Oasis. Rasterized habitat vector to match DEM grid For each scenario/year, masked habitat raster with inundation raster Counted flooded cells per habitat type Computed area loss, remaining area, incremental loss, composition shifts Note: Habitat vector covers only part of Alberoni. "Baseline" = mapped habitat extent, not total protected area. No habitat migration modeled. Limitations Bathtub model: instantaneous flooding, no hydrodynamics/groundwater 2015 baseline assumes dikes fully protect sub-sea-level areas Habitat map incomplete; unmapped areas excluded No habitat migration or succession modeled DEM resolution (~10m) may miss fine features Funding Acknowledgement This work was supported by the Assessing Climate Change Risk in EUrope (ACCREU) project, funded by the European Commission under the Horizon Europe programme. Project website: ACCREU Website