Climate-Hazard Screening and the Limits of Calendar Adaptation for Global Endurance Events under CMIP6 Projections (Code and Data)

This repository contains the data, code, intermediate outputs, validation results, and figures associated with the study: “Climate-Hazard Screening and the Limits of Calendar Adaptation for Global Endurance Events under CMIP6 Projections.” The study assesses climate-related disruption risks for 28 major endurance events (18 marathons and 10 Ironman triathlons) using CMIP6 climate projections. The analysis combines heat and heavy-precipitation hazards through the Endurance Event Disruption Index (EEDI), evaluates present and future exposure at current event dates, and explores the potential and limitations of calendar adaptation under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The repository contains both the analysis code and the datasets generated or processed for the study. Repository structure Code.zipAnalysis and processing scripts used to reproduce the main calculations, sensitivity analyses, figures, and derived results presented in the manuscript and Supplementary Material. data.zipProcessed and derived datasets used in the analyses, including event-level and monthly climate-hazard indicators and EEDI results. timeseries.zipTime-series data used to calculate the climate indicators and event-level statistics. Because of their size, these files are provided separately from the more compact processed datasets. era5_validation_results.zipOutputs from the validation of the daily WBGT reconstruction against hourly ERA5 reanalysis at the 28 study locations for 2011–2020. These results support the evaluation of temporal-aggregation and WBGT-reconstruction uncertainty reported in the manuscript and Supplementary Material. figures.zipFigures generated for the manuscript and Supplementary Material. aci.zipAdditional analysis outputs and supporting files used in the study workflow. Main methodological components The repository supports reproduction of the principal analyses described in the paper, including: climate-hazard screening at the current seasonal position of each event; calculation of the Endurance Event Disruption Index (EEDI); monthly climatological EEDI profiles; identification of optimal and quasi-optimal calendar windows; SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 future projections; inter-model spread and agreement analyses; sensitivity to WBGT thresholds and time-of-day assumptions; sensitivity to the event-date sampling window; sensitivity to the quasi-optimal tolerance parameter; validation of the daily WBGT reconstruction against hourly ERA5. Data provenance The climate projections used in the study are derived from the NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset. Hourly ERA5 reanalysis data are used for the independent evaluation of the daily WBGT reconstruction. Large original climate-model and reanalysis archives are not redistributed in this repository. The deposited files contain the processed, extracted, and derived data required for the analyses described in the study, together with the corresponding analysis code. Reproducibility The repository is intended to provide the material necessary to reproduce the reported analyses and figures from the deposited processed datasets. Users wishing to reconstruct the complete workflow from the original climate archives should obtain the corresponding NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 and ERA5 source data from their official providers. Please cite both the associated publication and this Zenodo record when reusing the data or code.