Results for the paper "Bridging the green hydrogen gap: The role of H2Global in cross-continental hydrogen, ammonia and methanol markets"

The transition to a climate-neutral Europe requires large-scale production of green hydrogen and its derivatives, with imports from African countries offering a promising option. However, a significant cost gap between African production and European offtakers remains the major barrier. For the first time, both markets are coupled using the energy models PyPSA-Eur and PyPSA-Earth to analyse the role of the H2Global mechanism in bridging this gap. Results of both merit-order curves show that in 2030, none of the analysed pathways are cost-competitive, with African export costs (140-229 €/MWh) significantly exceeding European willingness to pay (40-100 €/MWh) for hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol. The required annual funding ranges between 0.6 and 11.4 billion €. By 2050 and under European Green Deal conditions, early-stage support enables a market entry and the ramp-up of a hydrogen and Power-to-X economy: trade volumes of up to 236 TWh become cost-competitive, potentially reaching 450 TWh through reinvested savings. While liquid hydrogen shipping becomes the least-cost option for direct hydrogen use, ammonia and methanol offer higher domestic infrastructure synergies. We conclude that, although ambitious European climate targets are the main reason for market ramp-up, the H2Global mechanism is a key and cost-effective instrument for overcoming the initial 'chicken-and-egg' problem of cross-continental energy partnerships, enabling market creation and ramp-up.