Integrating Historical Change and Future Projections to Guide Conservation, The Bren School, University of California Santa Barbara, 2018-2019.

This dataset is from a master's group thesis project at The Bren School of Environmental Science & Management at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and contains the data files from the analyses (see below for the associated dataset containing the Final Written Report, which will contain more detailed information about methods and results). The student researchers who completed this project include: Brad Anderson, Meghan Bowen, Lucy Genua, Kym Howo, and Genelle Ives. California’s coastal habitats face increasing threats from climate change and development. The Dangermond Preserve, located in western Santa Barbara County and managed by The Nature Conservancy, remains largely undeveloped but was managed as a cattle ranch for over a century. This project aims to inform conservation planning at the preserve by studying the property’s history and anticipating its future. This combined approach is important because, given our increasing awareness of climate change, conservation that focuses on recreating past conditions or maintaining current conditions may not be ideal or possible. This project had four objectives: 1) identify changes in area and structure of natural habitats over time, 2) predict plant distribution changes under future climate scenarios, 3) investigate the impact of ranching infrastructure on the threatened California red-legged frog distribution, and 4) prioritize conservation actions. An analysis of historic aerial imagery and vegetation maps showed that grassland area at the preserve has declined since the 1930s, whereas woodland and shrubland areas have increased. Ground surveys of coast live oak indicated, however, that oak recruitment has possibly declined over the same time period. Climate forecasting showed that some northern plant species and locally endemic species might decline at the preserve, while southern species that prefer warmer temperatures could expand. Finally, an analysis of streams and water features indicated that the preserve’s red-legged frog population may be supported by ranching stock ponds. In light of these results, we made recommendations for conservation, monitoring, and future research priorities. The raw data used in these analyses were obtained from the following organizations and open source databases: 1) FrameFinder through UC Santa Barbara's Special Collections Library 2) EarthExplorer through the US Geological Survey 3) Weislander Vegetation Type Mapping through UC Berkeley 4) The Nature Conservancy 5) Consortium of California Herbaria 6) Basin Characterization Model 7) Soil Survey Geographic Database The project began in April 2018 and ended in June 2019. To access the final written report associated with this project, see the associated data set titled "Integrating Historical Change and Future Projections to Guide Conservation (Final Report Only), The Bren School, University of California Santa Barbara, 2018-2019".