Replication archive for Reference-Unit Risk in GPU Compute Futures

This archive contains the replication materials for the manuscript "Reference-Unit Risk in GPU Compute Futures: A Pre-Trade Diagnostic." The archive includes derived indexes, event decompositions, diagnostic tables, threshold-grid outputs, source manifests, and deterministic validation scripts needed to reproduce the manuscript's main tables and robustness checks. The archive supports the following reproduced values: the effective-FLOP route has BR 0.500, B200/top-event share 0.623, and Wilcoxon p=0.216; the fixed-task route has BR 0.533, top-event share 1.499, and Wilcoxon p=0.173; and in the threshold sweep, the official PC controls pass 48/48 relaxed grid cells while the two broad compute candidates pass 0/48 cells. Licensed raw quote files are not redistributed. The reduced known-good calibration uses public BEA and BLS price-index series.