Northward shift and narrowing of the ITCZ in 20 years of AIRS data
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http://dataverse.jpl.nasa.gov/citation?persistentId=doi:10.48577/jpl.BIQCYX
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A time series analysis of Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) data between 2002 and 2022 show that both mean northern and southern boundaries of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) have shifted north for land and ocean. Such a shift is plausible, but has not predicted and has heretofore not been observed. The northern and southern ITCZ boundaries for land both shift northward at a rate of about 30 km/decade. For ocean, the southern boundary shifts faster than the northern boundary, resulting in a contraction of the width of the ocean ITCZ. A narrowing of the ITCZ with global warming was qualitatively predicted from energy-based considerations. The decrease in the width has been seen in ERA (European Centre for Medium Range Forecast Reanalysis) and MERRA (Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) data between 1987-2016. That result is statistically consistent in the sign and the error bars with our observations.
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Root
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2023-12-17



