Study on Landslide Susceptibility along the Chengdu–Lhasa Section of China's G318 National Highway under Future Precipitation Scenarios dataset

The Chengdu–Lhasa section of China’s G318 National Highway is characterized by steep topography, active tectonics, and significant spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. These geological and climatic challenges collectively reduce slope stability, leading to frequent landslide occurrences. To safeguard human lives and property and to mitigate disaster risks, this study investigates the spatial distribution and projected changes of landslide susceptibility along this corridor. The MaxEnt model, optimized using the ENMeval, was applied to analyze landslide susceptibility. Projected precipitation data from CMIP6 was incorporated to assess both the spatial distribution of landslide susceptibility and its potential changes under different scenarios. The results indicate that: 1) very high- and high- landslide susceptibility zones are mainly concentrated in Chengdu City, Ya’an City, and Meishan City; 2) precipitation and elevation are the primary controlling factors, with elevation playing a decisive role; within the 800–1600 m elevation range, very high- and high- susceptibility zones are most densely distributed, peaking during May and July; 3) Under projected precipitation scenarios, landslide susceptibility shows a rise-and-fall pattern, increasing from the current period to the 2060-2080 year, followed by a decline from the 2080-2100 year, while the centroid locations of very high- and high-susceptibility zones remains largely stable. This study incorporated projected precipitation into the optimized susceptibility modeling framework, enhancing the reliability of landslide susceptibility predictions. The results provide scientific support for climate-adaptive disaster management and the sustainable operation of the Sichuan–Tibet transportation corridor.