Multi-model seasonal forecasts of river discharge for Europe from January 2021 to present

This dataset provides hydrological seasonal forecasts of monthly mean river discharge across Europe. Two hydrological model ensembles are provided. The first is an E-HYPE multi-model system comprising eight model realisations using a catchment-based resolution. The second comprises the E-HYPEgrid, VIC-WUR and EFAS (LISFLOOD) hydrological models at a 5km gridded resolution.
The initialisation of the hydrological seasonal forecast uses the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) daily gridded meteorological observations (EFAS-Meteo) up until the start of the forecast, and the subsequent integration of the meteorological seasonal forecasts using all 51 members of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system 5 (SEAS5) meteorological forecasts. A bias adjustment step using quantile mapping for temperature and precipitation was used for the E-HYPE and ViC-WUR models to minimize drift in the forecasts caused by biases in SEAS5 compared to EFAS-Meteo.
The final output is in the form of monthly mean river discharge for the coming seven months. The context of the forecasts is provided by upper and lower terciles of the historical EFAS-Meteo driven simulation for each month of the year.
This dataset is produced by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute on behalf of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The operational production is performed by C3S in collaboration with Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS).

本数据集提供了欧洲月均河流径流的季节性预报，涉及两种水文模型集合。首先是包含八个基于流域分辨率的模型实现的 E-HYPE 多模型系统。其次是 E-HYPEgrid、VIC-WUR 和 EFAS（LISFLOOD）水文模型，采用 5km 网格分辨率。水文季节预报的初始化采用欧洲洪水预警系统（EFAS）直至预报开始前的每日网格气象观测（EFAS-Meteo），随后利用欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）季节预报系统 5（SEAS5）的全部 51 个成员的气象季节预报进行气象预报的后续整合。为减少 SEAS5 相较于 EFAS-Meteo 存在的偏差对预报产生的漂移，对 E-HYPE 和 ViC-WUR 模型采用了基于分位数映射的温度和降水偏差调整步骤。最终输出为未来七个月的月均河流径流。预报的背景由历史 EFAS-Meteo 驱动的模拟的每月份的上限和下限三分位数提供。该数据集由瑞典气象和水文研究所代表哥白尼气候变化服务（Copernicus Climate Change Service）制作。运行生产由 Copernicus 气候服务（C3S）与哥白尼应急管理服务（Copernicus Emergency Management Service, CEMS）合作完成。