Marine natural environments data for the National Climate Risk Assessment

What is the data?\nProjections of marine climate hazards, cumulative impact scores and marine animal biomass across Australia's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and regional areas. \nHazard data were supplied by the Australian Climate Service (ACS) from data stored on the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) as part of Project ia39. \nGridded cumulative impact scores for the Australian EEZ have been produced by CSIRO following an approach previously developed by Hayes et al (2021). \nGridded animal biomass projection data for the Australian EEZ are from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP, Blanchard and Novaglio 2024). \nPolygons for marine regions used in this study to derive regional summaries for hazards, cumulative impact scores and animal biomass projections.\n\nWhy was it produced?\nThe data presented here was prepared for the National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) and supported the assessment of Australia's marine natural environments.\n\nReferences\nBlanchard, J.L., Novaglio, C., 2024. Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries – Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project, FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper, No. 707. Rome, FAO.\nHayes, K.R., Dunstan, P., Woolley, S., Barrett, N., Howe, S.A., Samson, C.R., Bowling, R., Ryan, M.P., Foster, S., Monk, J., Peel, D., Hosack, G.R., Francis, S.O., 2021. Designing a Targeted Monitoring Program to Support Evidence Based Management of Australian Marine Parks: A Pilot on the South-East Marine Parks Network. Report to Parks Australia and the National Environmental Science Program, Marine Biodiversity Hub. Parks Australia, University of Tasmanian and CSIRO, Hobart, Australia\nLineage: The National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) hazard data were supplied by the Australian Climate Service (ACS) from data stored on the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) as part of Project ia39. \n\nThe hazard data came in the form of a climate model ensemble, with outputs for four global warming levels (GWLs) from each of the individual models. Data is the mean, minimum, and maximum of physical and biogeochemical climate hazards that are relevant to coastal and marine environments, with outputs for four global warming levels (1.2, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 degrees Celcius). Ocean hazards are derived from an eddy-resolving, near-global, ocean model called the Ocean Forecasting Australian Model 3 (OFAM3) forced by Earth System Model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. \n\nThe hazard data were summarized by regions of the Australian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ): \n\n1. Christmas and Cocos Islands \n\n2. North-west \n\n3. North \n\n4. Great Barrier Reef and Torres Strait \n\n5. Coral Sea \n\n6. South-west \n\n7. Temperate east \n\n8. South-east \n\n9. Macquarie Island \n\n10. Heard and McDonald Islands \n\n \n\nHazards include: \n\n1. Bottom Aragonite Saturation State \n\n2. Bottom Stress (10-3N/m2) \n\n3. Bottom Temperature (degree Celcius) \n\n4. Degree Heating Weeks \n\n5. Marine Heatwave (MHW) Duration (days) \n\n6. MHW Magnitude (degree Celcius) \n\n6. Mixed Layer Depth (m) \n\n8. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) (molC/m2/y) \n\n9. pH \n\n10. Sea Surface Temperature (degree Celcius) \n\n11. Surface Aragonite Saturation State \n\nGridded cumulative impact scores for the Australian EEZ were calculated by adding normalised hazards (provided by ACS) weighted by vulnerability scores for the relevant ecosystem at each pixel. Vulnerability scores and ecosystem maps were obtained from Hayes et al. (2021). \n\nGridded animal biomass projection data for the Australian EEZ are from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP, Blanchard and Novaglio 2024), an international collaboration of researchers focused on understanding the long-term impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries worldwide. These projections estimate changes in the biomass of benthic, demersal and pelagic animals ranging from small consumers (100 kg), hereafter referred to as ‘total animal biomass’. \n\nThe FishMIP global marine ecosystem ensemble comprises nine ecosystem models that incorporate climate-related variables, such as changes in ocean conditions, phytoplankton, and zooplankton, derived from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The FishMIP ensemble generates standardised outputs of total animal biomass, ranging from small consumers (100 kg). FishMIP's projections are driven by physical and biogeochemical forcings from two Earth system models from CMIP6 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Projections are provided for global warming levels (GWL) 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 °C relative to a baseline of GLW 1.2 (adjusted to be 2001-2014 to align with the FishMIP base period). \n\nMarine regions were derived combining EEZ (https://geoserver.imas.utas.edu.au/geoserver/owsseamap:SeamapAus_BOUNDARIES_Aus_EEZ), Marine Bioregional Plans (https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/marine/marine-bioregional-plans) and territorial waters (https://geoserver.imas.utas.edu.au/geoserver/seamap/owsSeamapAus_BOUNDARIES_state_coastal_waters).