Observation-based probabilistic reanalysis of storm surge and sea level extremes for the United States

Extreme storm surge data:

1) BAYEX-TG (standard version): data from BAYEX model informed with annual maxima skew surge (m) from standard hourly tide gauge data only between 1950-2020 are contained in: BAYEX-TG_GEV_PRED

and

2) BAYEX-TG/EXT (extended version): data from BAYEX model informed with annual maxima skew surge (m) from standard hourly tide gauge data only between 1950-2020 along with updated annual maxima extracted from additional complementary data sources (e.g., inferred extremes, laste recorded extreme water levels, high water marks and other data) are contained in: BAYEX-TG-EXT_GEV_PRED

BAYEX GEV parameters at U.S. ungauged locations

Indicator name

Dimensions (samples x sites x years when applicable)

Units

Latitude

BAYEX_LAT_PRED

1712 (ungauged sites)

Degrees

Longitude

BAYEX_LON_PRED

1712 (ungauged sites)

Degrees

Predicted Shape

BAYEX_GEV_SHAPE_PRED

6000 x 1712

-

Predicted Scale  

BAYEX_GEV_SCALE_PRED

6000 x 1712

m

Predicted Location

BAYEX_GEV_LOC_PRED

6000 x 1712 x 71 (years)

m

Annual Maxima

BAYEX_AMAX_PRED

1712 x 71 (years)

m

Extreme sea level data:

1) BAYEX-TG (standard version): ESL data obtained by combining BAYEX model (informed with annual maxima skew surge (m) from standard hourly tide gauge data only between 1950-2020) with tidal peaks from TPXO are contained in: BAYEX-TG_ESL_PRED

and

2) BAYEX-TG/EXT (extended version): ESL data obtained by combining BAYEX model (informed with annual maxima skew surge (m) from standard hourly tide gauge data only between 1950-2020 along with updated annual maxima extracted from additional complementary data sources (e.g., inferred extremes, laste recorded extreme water levels, high water marks and other data) with tidal peaks from TPXO are contained in: BAYEX-TG-EXT_ESL_PRED

ESL return periods (up to 1000 years) at U.S. ungauged sites

Indicator name

Dimensions (sites x return periods x percentile statistics)

Units

Latitude coordinates

BAYEX_LAT_PRED

1712 (ungauged sites)

Degrees

Longitude coordinates

BAYEX_LON_PRED

1712 (ungauged sites)

Degrees

Estimated return periods using Method 1 (CONV)*

BAYEX RL_ESL_CONV_TPXO

1712 x 999 x 3

m

Estimated return periods using Method 2 (MHW)*

BAYEX RL_ESL_MHW_TPXO

1712 x 999 x 3

m

Estimated return periods using Method 2 (MHHW)*

BAYEX RL_ESL_MHHW_TPXO

1712 x 999 x 3

m

Estimated return periods using Method 2 (HAT)*

BAYEX RL_ESL_HAT_TPXO

1712 x 999 x 3

m

*denote different methods of combining extreme storm surge data with tidal peak data (see complementary article for further details).

NOTE: all data and associated published articles require proper acknowlement, citation and referencing when directly or indirectly using any archived file listed above.

Associated publications:

1. Joao Morim, D.J. Rasmussen, Thomas Wahl et al. Observation-based probabilistic reanalysis of storm surge and sea level extremes for the United States, 24 February 2025, PREPRINT (Version 1) available at Research Square. (under review)

2. Joao Morim, Thomas Wahl, D.J. Rasmussen et al. Observations reveal changing coastal storms around the United States, 25 November 2024, PREPRINT (Version 1) available at Research Square. (under review)

Associated data:

1. Morim, J. (2024). National estimates of U.S. storm surge extremes and underlying long-term trends (1950-2020) using spatiotemporal non-stationary Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10944076

Associated model:

1. Calafat, F. M. (2024). BAYEX: Spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical modeling of extremes with max-stable processes (v3.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10967174