A Cross-Country Database of Potential Growth

The World Bank’s Prospects Group has constructed a comprehensive international database of potential growth. The database covers up to 173 countries for 1981-2021, and includes nine measures of potential growth of which the following eight are published:Multivariate filter (MVF)Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP)Christiano-Fitzgerald filter (CF)Baxter-King filter (BK)Butterworth filter (BW)Unobserved Components Model (UCM)5-year ahead expectations (based on IMF’s WEO database vintages)Production function approach together with its decomposition: capital, labor and total factor productivity (TFP)Kilic Celik, Kose, Ohnsorge, and Ruch (2023) provide detailed information on the database, document the steady decline in global potential growth over the past decade, and show the impact of adverse shock on potential growth.