Mind the Gap: Natural Rates and Monetary Policy Misalignments in the European Union

The archive data_results_main_model.zip contains country-level Excel files with the input data and results from the baseline specification. A second archive, data_results_robust_model.zip, includes corresponding outputs from the robustness checks. In addition to the full country-level results, summary tables are provided separately. The file NRI_estimates.xlsx reports the estimated natural rate of interest used in the main analysis, while NRI_estimates_robust.xlsx contains results from the alternative specification. Estimates of real output and the output gap are reported in y_estimates.xlsx. The file GFEVD.zip contains the forecast error variance decomposition of the natural rate of interest