Uncertain jobs, certain votes? Examining the relations of job insecurity, union attitudes and political behavior [Author Accepted Manuscript]

This study explores relations between perceived job insecurity, union attitudes, and voting behavior—particularly support for far-right parties—following the 2024 state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia (Germany; N = 710). Although job insecurity is often linked to negative individual outcomes, its political effects are less well understood. We examined whether job insecurity relates to identification with or voting for the far-right party Alternative für Deutschland (“Alternative for Germany”; AfD) and other right-wing parties, using a left-right party spectrum. We also investigated whether trust in politicians mediates and whether union attitudes moderate this relationship. Results of structural equation modeling showed that job insecurity did not significantly relate to right-wing political identification or voting. However, low trust in politicians was strongly related to both outcomes. Positive union attitudes were linked to a lower likelihood of voting for far-right parties, but they did not moderate the job insecurity-political outcome relationship. Results were consistent across states, union membership, and employment status. These findings suggest that trust in politicians and union attitudes may be more influential predictors of political behavior than job insecurity, offering new insight into how economic and political concerns shape democratic engagement. This study is part of a larger data collection initiated by the Center for Research on Right-Wing Extremism, Democracy Education and Social Integration (KomRex) at the University of Jena. as part of its program to support early-career scholars. Funding was provided by the Thuringian Ministry for Economic Affairs, Science and Digital Society through the state program for democracy, tolerance, and cosmopolitanism (DENKBUNT) and by the Volkswagen Foundation. reviewed acceptedVersion