Climate Change and the Food Production Cycle in Kaduna State, Nigeria: Farmers' Perceptions, Production Impacts, Adaptation Constraints and Resilience Priorities

Climate change increasingly threatens agricultural productivity and food-system stability in sub-Saharan Africa, where much agricultural production depends on rainfall. Kaduna State, Nigeria, is an important agricultural region whose farming systems are vulnerable to rising temperatures, rainfall variability, drought, flooding, and climate-sensitive pest and disease pressures. This study examined the effects of climate change on the food production cycle in Kaduna State, focusing on four dimensions: manifestations of climate change, effects across stages of food production, constraints to farmer adaptation, and strategies for reducing adverse effects and improving food production. A survey research design was adopted. From an estimated population of 10,000 registered food-crop farmers in selected study areas, 385 respondents were selected using Yamane’s formula and a multistage sampling procedure. Of these, 371 valid questionnaires were returned, representing a 96.4% response rate. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, including frequencies, percentages, means, standard deviations, and variances. Findings indicate strong farmer agreement that climate change is manifested through rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, drought, flooding, and increased pest and disease infestation, with a grand mean of 4.31. Climate change was also perceived to substantially affect the food production cycle, with a grand mean of 4.34. Rising temperatures reducing crop yields recorded the highest mean score (4.53), followed by irregular rainfall affecting germination (4.45). Major adaptation constraints included inadequate finance (4.47), high irrigation costs (4.41), limited access to improved seeds (4.37), inadequate climate information (4.31), and weak extension services (4.24). The highest-ranked adaptation priorities were improved seed varieties (4.58), government support and extension services (4.55), irrigation (4.51), climate-smart agriculture (4.48), and climate information (4.39). The study concludes that climate risks affect the entire food production cycle and require an integrated resilience approach. It recommends combining climate information, affordable finance, improved climate-resilient seeds, irrigation, extension services, climate-smart agricultural practices, and resilient post-harvest and transport infrastructure to strengthen food-system resilience in Kaduna State.