An annually resolved 5700-years storm archive reveals drivers of Caribbean cyclone frequency

Predictions of tropical cyclone (TC) frequencies are hampered by insufficient knowledge of their natural variability in the past. A 30-m-long sediment core from the Great Blue Hole, a marine sinkhole offshore Belize, provides the longest available, continuous and annually-resolved TC-frequency record. This record expands our understanding, derived from instrumental monitoring (73-years), historical documentations (173-years) and paleotempestological records (2000-years), to the past 5700 years. A total of 694 event-layers were identified. They display a distinct regional trend of increasing storminess in the south-western Caribbean, which follows an orbitally-driven shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Superimposed short-term variations match Holocene climate intervals and originate from solar irradiance-controlled sea-surface temperature anomalies and climate phenomena modes. A 21st century extrapolation suggests an unprecedented increase in TC-frequency, attributable to the Industrial Era-warming.