Elements and Possible Constraints for a Smooth Energy Transition in India

The Prime Minister of India laid down a target for India at COP 26—to achieve net zero emissions by 2070. Realizing this target depends upon a transition away from fossil fuels towards non-fossil-fuel alternatives. This Commentary highlights the main constraints in this attempt at transitioning to an energy mix that has a greater share of renewables. It is noted that while the share of solar and wind in installed capacity has increased significantly, there has been no corresponding decrease in the share of coal. In absolute terms, coal-based capacity has also shown significant increase. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of India as communicated to the UNFCC was revised in August 2022 in view of the progress made and now includes a target of increasing the share of non-fossil-fuel sources to 50% of installed capacity. In addition, in the recently released Draft National Electricity Plan (DNEP), a target of 413 GW of new installed capacity has been set for the decade 2022–32. This is against the 54 GW achieved in 2017–22. The major concern is that this sharp increase in renewable energy capacity is not supported by any corresponding policy measures. If these targets are not met, fossil fuel capacity will increase more than anticipated- as per the DNEP, coal-based capacity could increase by about 50 GW in the next decade. Another concern pertains to the problems associated with energy storage systems, which are necessary with high level of penetration of renewable energy. Finally, the other concerns are the issues connected with a just transition—ensuring support to those whose livelihoods could be lost in this transition of the energy system to one where fossil fuels, mainly coal in India, could see a decline.